538 2024 Predictions. Republicans can point to national polls finding their likely nominee, former president donald. Kamala harris leads by 3.8 points in our national polling average and would be a clear favorite in an election held today —.

 — if he remains a key player in the party and republican voters remain enthusiastic about his candidacy, that all could prove beneficial to a potential 2024 presidential bid.  — our model is updated every day, blending the latest data on polls and fundraising with fundamental factors like incumbency and each district’s partisan lean.